ESTA Refusal Statistics 2026: CBP and DHS Data
CBP says 42 countries participate in the Visa Waiver Program. In fiscal year 2024, DHS counted 16.88 million WT (pleasure) and 2.22 million WB (business) Visa Waiver admissions on I-94 records. The FY2024 Entry/Exit Overstay Report put the VWP suspected in-country overstay rate at 0.43% of 18,853,231 expected departures. USA.gov lists the ESTA fee at $40.27. This report compiles 10 verified statistics from CBP, DHS, and USA.gov. CBP does not publish a simple annual “ESTA denial rate” the way the State Department publishes B-visa refusal rates, so the official numbers below are volumes, fees, VWP rules, and overstay rates, plus the denial counts CBP does release.
This post is for UK, EU, Japanese, Australian, and other VWP travelers who need ESTA before a US trip, and for anyone who was denied and now faces a full B-visa interview.
The problem is treating ESTA like a stamp that cannot fail. Authorization can be denied, revoked, or overruled at the port of entry. Overstaying a 90-day VWP admission is how a cheap ESTA becomes a multi-year visa problem.
All ESTA and VWP figures here are from DHS, CBP, or USA.gov. B-visa 3% is the statutory VWP designation test, also stated on the DHS VWP page.
1. CBP lists 42 Visa Waiver Program countries
CBP states that the VWP permits citizens of 42 countries to travel to the United States for business or tourism for up to 90 days without a visa, if they hold an approved ESTA. The DHS country table names the 42, including Qatar (travel began 21 November 2024) and Israel (29 September 2023). Romania was designated on 9 January 2025 but that designation was rescinded on 2 May 2025 before implementation.
ESTA is mandatory for air or sea VWP travel, and since October 2022 for land VWP entry as well. Authorization is not admission. CBP officers still decide admissibility at the port.
If your country is not on the 42, you cannot “apply for ESTA anyway.” You need a visa. If your country falls off the list, ESTA stops working even if a prior authorization has time left on paper.
Source: CBP, Visa Waiver Program and DHS, U.S. Visa Waiver Program
2. Q1 FY2026: 1.6 million FIFA-nation ESTA filings and over 1 million approvals
On 11 February 2026, CBP reported that travelers from FIFA World Cup 2026-qualified nations submitted 1.6 million ESTA applications in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, and that CBP approved over 1 million ESTA authorizations for that group. The United Kingdom led with more than 425,000 approvals, then France (over 215,000), Germany (over 190,000), Japan (nearly 180,000), and Korea (more than 135,000).
This is not a global denial rate. The 1.6 million and 1 million-plus figures are a FIFA-nation slice of one quarter, and pending or ineligible filings are not the same as refusals. It is the most recent official volume CBP has put on a press release.
For World Cup travel, CBP’s own advice is to apply well before tickets. A late denial leaves no time for a B-visa appointment.
Source: CBP, ESTA and TTP approvals for FIFA World Cup 2026 nations (11 February 2026)
3. FY2024 I-94 records show 16.88 million WT and 2.22 million WB admissions
DHS’s FY2024 Nonimmigrant Admissions report counted 16,878,800 Visa Waiver pleasure (WT) admissions and 2,215,270 Visa Waiver business (WB) admissions, plus 672,950 Guam-CNMI pleasure (GMT) admissions. Total I-94 admissions were 77,646,290. All nonimmigrant admissions, including people who do not receive an I-94, were about 147 million.
WT plus WB is about 19.1 million VWP I-94 admissions in FY2024, 24.6% of I-94 traffic. B-2 tourist visas still outnumber VWP pleasure trips (43,066,390 B-2). VWP is the visa-free slice, not the whole visitor flow.
UK citizens were 4,419,530 I-94 admissions (5.7%), Germany 2,169,090, France 2,111,010, Japan 1,996,550, and South Korea 1,962,790. Those ranks align with the FIFA ESTA approval leaders.
Source: DHS OHSS, U.S. Nonimmigrant Admissions: 2024
4. DHS said about 18 million VWP travelers spent $84 billion in FY2023
The DHS VWP page states the United States welcomed approximately 18 million VWP travelers in FY2023 who, according to the Department of Commerce, spent approximately $84 billion, or nearly $231 million a day.
That is the economic case for keeping the programme, and the reason CBP invests in ESTA vetting rather than putting every European visitor in a visa queue. Volume is the point. Denial, when it happens, is supposed to be targeted.
Eighteen million travelers is also why a “small” overstay rate still produces tens of thousands of individual compliance events, which is the next statistic.
Source: DHS, U.S. Visa Waiver Program
5. The VWP in-country overstay rate was 0.43% in FY2024
CBP’s FY2024 Entry/Exit Overstay Report to Congress put the Visa Waiver Program suspected in-country overstay rate at 0.43% of 18,853,231 expected departures.
The overall in-scope overstay rate was 1.15%, or 538,548 events, out of 46,657,108 expected departures. Non-VWP countries excluding Canada and Mexico ran 2.22% of 12,131,255. Students and exchange visitors (F, M, J) ran 2.45% of 1,412,627. By 6 February 2025, suspected in-country overstays for the year had fallen to 427,204 (0.92%) after later departures and status changes.
VWP travelers overstay less than visa nationals. They are not at zero. 0.43% of 18.85 million is still on the order of 81,000 suspected in-country cases before later reconciliation. An ESTA overstay is also how people lose VWP eligibility and get pushed into B-visa interviews. See US overstay, ESTA, and future visas.
Source: DHS/CBP, Entry/Exit Overstay Report FY2024
6. USA.gov lists the ESTA fee at $40.27
USA.gov, last updated 10 April 2026, states the total ESTA cost is $40.27. Status can take up to 72 hours. An approved ESTA is generally valid for two years, or until the passport expires if sooner, and allows multiple VWP visits. Each visit is still capped at 90 days.
The fee rose from $21 to $40 on 30 September 2025 under a statutory change, then to $40.27 with an inflation adjustment. CBP’s ESTA site shows the same $40.27 figure. There is no refund when an application is not approved, which is why a denial is a sunk processing cost plus a forced visa path.
Apply on esta.cbp.dhs.gov only. Third-party sites add fees and phishing risk.
Source: USA.gov, Visa Waiver Program and ESTA application
7. VWP designation requires a B-visa refusal rate under 3%
DHS lists, among other statutory tests, that a country must have an annual temporary visitor (B) visa refusal rate of less than 3% to be designated for the VWP.
That 3% is a State Department B-visa statistic, not an ESTA denial rate. It is still the official gate for who gets visa-free access. A country that drifts above 3% can lose the programme. Travelers from VWP countries who are denied ESTA are sent to that same B-visa process, where refusal rates for some nationalities are far above 3%.
DHS also states that VWP countries with a 2% or greater rate of business or tourism overstays must run a public information campaign. Overstay, not just visa refusal, is a programme-level metric.
Source: DHS, U.S. Visa Waiver Program
8. CBP has denied several thousand ESTAs against the terrorist watchlist since 2008
The DHS VWP page states that since ESTA’s inception in 2008, CBP has denied several thousand ESTA applications after vetting against the US government’s terrorist watchlist. A CBP ESTA-enhancements FAQ still on the site gives older cumulative figures: over 4,300 watchlist-related denials and over 22,500 denials for passports reported lost or stolen.
Those are not annual rates. CBP has not published a current year-by-year “percent of ESTA applications refused.” The official picture is: millions of approvals, thousands of security denials, and additional denials for stolen-passport and eligibility hits. Eligibility questions (prior visa refusals, certain travel history, criminal issues) drive many of the denials travelers actually see.
A denial is usually final for ESTA purposes. The next step is a visa interview, not an ESTA appeal.
Source: DHS, U.S. Visa Waiver Program and CBP, Enhancements to ESTA FAQs
9. 98.85% of in-scope FY2024 visitors departed on time
The same overstay report says 98.85% of in-scope nonimmigrant visitors departed on time. Suspected in-country overstays were 482,954 (1.04%) at year-end, and out-of-country overstays (late recorded exits) were 55,594 (0.11%).
On-time departure is the norm. The enforcement story is the minority who do not leave, plus the people who leave late and still generate a record. VWP travelers are in the lower-rate group, but CBP matches air and sea exits. There is no “I forgot to get a stamp” defense.
For ESTA users, the 90-day clock starts on admission, not on the ESTA approval date. A two-year ESTA does not grant two years in the US.
Source: DHS/CBP, Entry/Exit Overstay Report FY2024
10. ESTA approval still does not guarantee admission
CBP’s VWP page states that authorization via ESTA does not determine whether a traveler is admissible. Officers decide that on arrival. DHS repeats that an ESTA is not a guarantee of admission.
That is a second refusal layer: carrier boarding (no ESTA, no plane) and port-of-entry inspection (ESTA in hand, still possible refusal). Inadmissibility at the airport is not published as an “ESTA refusal rate,” but it is why CBP tells World Cup visitors to apply early and still prepare for inspection.
If you were refused ESTA, do not buy a ticket hoping the officer will “sort it.” If you were approved, do not overstay 90 days hoping nobody notices. Both errors are how VWP travelers end up in the B-visa refusal statistics instead of the WT/WB admission counts.
Source: CBP, Visa Waiver Program
What these numbers tell us
ESTA is a high-volume, low-overstay programme. Nineteen million VWP I-94 admissions, an 0.43% in-country overstay rate, and a $40.27 fee describe a system built for frequent short visits, not for remote-work years. CBP will not give you a single neat “2025 ESTA denial percentage.” What it will give you is watchlist denial counts in the thousands since 2008, FIFA-quarter approval volumes in the millions, and a 3% B-visa test for which countries stay in the club.
The traveler takeaway is operational. Apply on the official site, wait out the 72 hours, treat 90 days as a hard stop, and assume a denial means a visa, not a retry button. For how this compares with Europe’s coming ETIAS pre-travel check, see ETIAS statistics 2026.
ESTA refusals are uncommon relative to volume and expensive relative to a $40 fee, because the backup path is a full visa. Do not overstay the 90 days that the 0.43% who did overstay already put on a DHS report.
How Staywise helps you navigate this landscape
ESTA is one 90-day clock. Schengen is another. A UK-US-EU year can violate both if you count “months” instead of days.
Staywise (the visa compliance app for digital nomads) tracks days across every country automatically, including the US 90-day VWP limit and the Schengen 90/180 window. It alerts you 7, 3, and 1 day before a stay limit and exports a history you can use if you later need a B visa. Free trial, then annual subscription. See App Store for current pricing.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the ESTA denial rate?
CBP has not published a current overall ESTA denial percentage. Official material says CBP has approved millions of applications since 2008 and denied several thousand after terrorist-watchlist vetting, with an older CBP FAQ also citing over 4,300 watchlist denials and over 22,500 lost-or-stolen passport denials. Q1 FY2026 FIFA-nation figures were 1.6 million applications and over 1 million approvals, which is a volume snapshot, not a global rate.
How many people travel to the US on ESTA or the Visa Waiver Program?
DHS counted 16,878,800 WT and 2,215,270 WB I-94 admissions in FY2024, about 19.1 million Visa Waiver I-94 entries. The DHS VWP page cites about 18 million VWP travelers in FY2023, who spent about $84 billion. ESTA is the pre-travel authorization those travelers must hold. I-94 VWP counts are admissions, so one person with two trips counts twice. CBP’s 42-country list is who may apply.
What is the Visa Waiver overstay rate?
0.43% suspected in-country overstay among 18,853,231 expected VWP departures in FY2024, per the CBP Entry/Exit Overstay Report. The overall in-scope rate was 1.15% (538,548 events). Non-VWP countries excluding Canada and Mexico were at 2.22%. Students and exchange visitors ran 2.45%. VWP is the lowest major visitor category in that report, not a zero-risk category. An overstay can also end VWP eligibility.
How much does ESTA cost and how long is it valid?
USA.gov lists $40.27, up to 72 hours for a decision, generally two years of validity or until the passport expires, and 90 days per visit. Multiple entries are allowed during the validity window. The fee is paid on application and is not a refundable deposit if CBP does not approve travel. A denial does not convert into a visa. The next step is a B-visa interview at a US embassy or consulate.
Where do these ESTA statistics come from?
Country count and programme rules: CBP VWP page and DHS VWP page. FIFA-quarter volumes: CBP news release, 11 February 2026. Admission tables: DHS OHSS Nonimmigrant Admissions 2024. Overstay rates: CBP FY2024 Entry/Exit Overstay Report PDF. Fee and validity: USA.gov. Watchlist denial language: DHS VWP page and CBP ESTA-enhancements FAQ. No blog roundup is used as a primary figure.
Related guides
- US Overstay, ESTA, and Future Visas
- Visa Overstay Statistics 2026
- Visa Rejection Statistics 2026
- ETIAS Statistics 2026
About Staywise
Staywise is the visa compliance app for digital nomads. Built by nomads for nomads, it tracks your days across every country automatically, alerts you before overstays, and keeps passport details on your device for privacy. The in-app AI assistant answers visa questions in plain English. Available on iOS.
Important: This content is informational and does not constitute legal, tax, or immigration advice. Visa rules, tax regulations, and entry requirements change frequently and vary by individual circumstances. Always verify current requirements with official government sources or a qualified professional before making travel decisions. Staywise tracks your days and surfaces compliance information, but final responsibility for compliance rests with the traveler.