Visa Rejection Statistics 2026: The Real Refusal Rates
Visa rejection is more common than most travelers assume. In 2024, Schengen consulates refused 14.8% of short-stay applications, Canada denied 54% of visitor visa requests, and US student visa denials hit a record 41%. Rejection rates also vary enormously by nationality, with some countries facing refusal rates above 80%. This report compiles 11 verified data points from government statistics offices, the European Commission, and the US State Department, covering the refusal rates that determine whether a trip happens at all.
Visa refusal rates are rising across most major destinations. After the post-pandemic travel rebound, consulates in Europe, North America, and the UK are scrutinizing applications more closely, and the gap between high-approval and high-rejection nationalities keeps widening.
For travelers, a rejection is not just a lost trip. It means a forfeited application fee, weeks of wasted preparation, and a refusal record that can complicate future applications to other countries. Knowing the real numbers helps you assess your odds and prepare a stronger application.
This post pulls together 11 sourced statistics on visa rejection and refusal rates for 2024 to 2026. The data comes from the European Commission's Directorate-General for Migration and Home Affairs, the US Department of State, Canada's IRCC, the UK Home Office, and independent research firms.
1. Schengen consulates refused 14.8% of short-stay visa applications in 2024
Schengen states rejected 14.8% of all short-stay visa applications in 2024, down slightly from 16% in 2023 and 17.9% in 2022.
According to the European Commission's Directorate-General for Migration and Home Affairs, consulates received more than 11.7 million short-stay visa applications in 2024, a 13.6% increase over 2023. They issued over 9.7 million visas, with more than half allowing multiple entries into the Schengen area. The remaining applications were either refused or withdrawn.
A 14.8% refusal rate means roughly one in seven applicants was turned away. While the rate has declined for two consecutive years, the rising application volume means the absolute number of rejected travelers remains high. For anyone planning a European trip on a Schengen visa, the data confirms that refusal is a real risk, not a rare exception.
Source: European Commission, Directorate-General for Migration and Home Affairs (2025)
2. Rejected Schengen applicants lost an estimated €145 million in fees in 2024
Schengen visa applicants forfeited an estimated €145 million in non-refundable application fees in 2024, an 11% increase over the previous year.
The figure reflects roughly 1.7 million rejected applications multiplied by the Schengen visa fee, which rose from €80 to €90 in June 2024 (an average of €85 was used for the calculation). Visa fees are not refunded when an application is refused, so every rejection is a direct financial loss to the applicant on top of the lost trip.
This number matters because it quantifies the stakes of a weak application. The cost of a rejection is not just the fee itself but the cumulative loss across millions of applicants. For high-volume routes, a single rejected application can mean reapplying, paying the fee again, and waiting weeks for a new appointment.
Source: ThinkEurope analysis of European Commission visa data (2025)
3. Malta rejected 38.5% of Schengen applications, the highest of any member state
Malta recorded the highest Schengen visa refusal rate of any member state in 2024 at 38.5%, meaning nearly four in ten applications were turned away.
Based on DG HOME European Commission visa statistics, Estonia followed at 27.2%, then Belgium at 24.6%, Slovenia at 24.5%, and Sweden at 24.0%. By contrast, high-volume issuers like France hovered closer to the Schengen average. Smaller consular networks tend to post higher refusal rates, partly because of limited processing capacity and narrower applicant pools.
The practical takeaway: which Schengen country you apply through affects your odds. Because the Schengen rule requires applying to the country of your main destination or first entry, travelers cannot simply pick the most lenient consulate. But understanding these disparities helps set realistic expectations before you apply.
Source: HelloSafe Schengen Refusal Barometer, citing DG HOME European Commission (2025)
4. African applicants faced a 27% Schengen rejection rate, more than double the rate for Asia
Applicants from African countries faced a 27% Schengen visa rejection rate in 2023, compared to 13% for Asian applicants and a global average of 16%.
According to Henley & Partners' Global Mobility Report, the disparity has widened over the past decade. In 2013, African applicants faced an 18% rejection rate versus 6% for Asia. Between 2013 and 2023, Asia submitted 5.9 million applications versus Africa's 2.5 million, yet Africa's refusal rate ran more than double. Individual nations fared worse still, with Comoros at 61.3%, Guinea-Bissau at 51%, and Ghana at 47.5%.
This pattern reflects a strong correlation between an applicant's country of origin and approval odds. For travelers from high-rejection nationalities, the data underscores why thorough documentation and proof of ties to home matter far more than for applicants from wealthier nations.
Source: Henley & Partners, Global Mobility Report (2025)
5. Canada refused 54% of visitor visa applications in 2024, a record high
Canada turned away 54% of visitor visa (temporary resident visa) applications in 2024, up sharply from 40% in 2023.
Based on IRCC data, roughly 1.95 million visitor visa applications were denied. Across all temporary resident categories, Canada refused about 2.36 million applications, a 50% overall refusal rate, up from 35% the prior year. The surge aligns with a federal policy announced in March 2024 to reduce the share of temporary residents in Canada's population from 6.5% to 5% by 2026.
For travelers, this is one of the steepest rejection increases of any major destination. A visitor visa to Canada is now more likely to be refused than approved, a reversal from historical norms. Applicants need stronger evidence of intent to return home and sufficient funds than in previous years.
Source: Doherty Fultz Immigration analysis of IRCC data (2025)
6. Canada study permit refusals reached 52% in 2024
Canada refused 52% of study permit applications in 2024, up from 38% the previous year, with about 290,317 applications denied.
According to IRCC data, study permits saw one of the largest jumps in refusal rates among temporary resident categories. Work permits, by contrast, held relatively steady at a 22% refusal rate, down marginally from 23% in 2023. The divergence reflects Canada's targeted tightening of student intake while keeping skilled-worker pathways comparatively open.
This matters for the growing population of younger travelers who use study permits as a route to longer-term residence or remote work flexibility. A coin-flip refusal rate means applicants can no longer treat approval as the default outcome and should budget for the possibility of reapplying.
Source: Doherty Fultz Immigration analysis of IRCC data (2025)
7. US student visa denials hit a record 41% in 2024
The US State Department refused 41% of student visa applicants in 2024, the highest rate on record, up from the previous peak of 36% in 2023.
According to analysis by the Cato Institute of State Department data, consular officers denied 278,553 student visas in 2024. The denial rate has climbed steadily from a low of 15% in 2014. From 2021 to 2024, student visas were refused at nearly twice the rate of all other application types.
For the many digital nomads and remote workers who first entered international mobility through study programs, this signals a tightening at the entry point. Even applicants from traditionally high-approval countries are seeing more refusals, making documentation of finances and study intent more important than ever.
Source: Cato Institute analysis of US State Department data (2025)
8. Laos faced the highest US visitor visa refusal rate at 82.84%
Laos recorded the highest US B-visa (visitor) refusal rate of any nationality in fiscal year 2024 at 82.84%, according to State Department data.
The State Department's FY2024 adjusted refusal rates show enormous variation by country of origin. Nigeria faced a 46.51% refusal rate, China 25.37%, India 16.32%, Brazil 15.48%, and Mexico 13.87%. At the low end, the United Arab Emirates was refused just 1.46% of the time. These rates apply to B-1 business and B-2 tourist visitor visas.
The spread illustrates how heavily nationality shapes US visa odds. An applicant's documentation and travel history matter, but the baseline refusal probability is set largely by passport. For travelers from high-refusal countries, building a strong case and demonstrating ties to home is essential.
Source: US Department of State, FY2024 Adjusted B Visa Refusal Rates by Nationality
9. US B-1/B-2 visitor visa refusals reached about 28% globally in 2024
The overall US B-1/B-2 visitor visa refusal rate reached roughly 28% in fiscal year 2024, affecting nearly 2.49 million applicants.
According to US State Department refusal data, B-1/B-2 visas carry the highest overall refusal rate of any nonimmigrant category. Tourist-purpose (B-2) applications face heavier scrutiny under Section 214(b) of the Immigration and Nationality Act, which presumes applicants intend to immigrate unless they prove otherwise. The burden falls on the traveler to demonstrate strong ties to their home country.
For travelers, this means a US visitor visa is far from a formality. More than one in four applicants worldwide is refused, and the rate has risen for three consecutive years. Demonstrating stable employment, family ties, and a clear itinerary improves the odds.
Source: US Department of State, FY2024 B Visa Refusal Rate data
10. The UK granted 2.2 million visitor visas in 2024, with roughly one in five applications refused
The UK granted 2.2 million visitor visas in 2024, while the overall visit visa refusal rate sat at roughly 20%, meaning about one in five applications was turned away.
According to UK Home Office immigration statistics, the visitor visa is the country's highest-volume route by application numbers. Grant rates vary widely by nationality: citizens of the United Arab Emirates and Oman saw approval rates above 98% from 2021 to 2024, while applicants from some lower-income countries faced refusal rates above 50%. The most common refusal reason is an officer not being satisfied the applicant will leave the UK at the end of the visit.
For travelers, the lesson mirrors the US and Schengen patterns: proof of intent to return home and evidence of sufficient funds are the decisive factors.
Source: UK Home Office, Immigration System Statistics, year ending December 2024
11. The US visa waiver overstay rate was just 0.43% in 2024
For travelers entering the US under the Visa Waiver Program, the suspected in-country overstay rate was only 0.43% of expected departures in fiscal year 2024.
According to the US Department of Homeland Security, the overall overstay rate across in-scope nonimmigrant visitors was 1.15%, meaning 98.85% departed on time. Visa Waiver Program countries, which include most of Europe, Japan, and Australia, posted a far lower rate than the average. DHS calculated these figures against 18.85 million expected departures from waiver-eligible travelers.
This statistic provides important context for rejection trends. Consulates refuse applicants largely out of concern they will overstay, yet overstay rates among compliant traveler populations remain very low. The data suggests refusal decisions are driven more by perceived risk profile than by actual overstay behavior in most cases.
Source: US Department of Homeland Security, Entry/Exit Overstay Report FY2024 (2025)
What these numbers tell us
Taken together, the data shows visa refusal rates rising across nearly every major destination. Canada's visitor visa refusals more than doubled the historical norm, US student denials hit a record, and Schengen refusals, while declining as a percentage, still turned away 1.7 million applicants in a single year. The era of treating a visa as a formality is over for most nationalities.
The single clearest pattern is that nationality drives outcomes more than anything else. US visitor refusal rates ranged from under 2% to over 82% depending solely on country of origin, and Schengen applicants from Africa were rejected at more than twice the rate of those from Asia. Documentation matters, but the baseline odds are set by passport before an applicant submits a single form. For travelers from high-rejection countries, this means over-preparing: strong proof of funds, employment, and ties to home.
The trajectory points toward continued tightening. Canada's policy targets run through 2026, the EU is rolling out new pre-travel screening through ETIAS, and consular scrutiny is increasing in response to migration pressures. Refusal rates are unlikely to fall meaningfully in the near term.
For anyone whose travel depends on a visa, the data is a clear signal: prepare every application as if rejection is the default, because for a growing share of applicants, it now is.
How Staywise helps you navigate this landscape
Visa rejection rates are one half of the compliance picture. The other half is what happens after you are admitted: staying within your authorized days so you never trigger an overstay, which is exactly the risk consulates fear when they refuse applicants in the first place.
Staywise (the visa compliance app for digital nomads) tracks your days across every country automatically, so you never lose count of how long you have left on a Schengen 90/180 window, a tourist visa, or a digital nomad visa. It alerts you 7, 3, and 1 day before any stay limit, keeps a clean travel history you can export to PDF or CSV for future visa applications, and answers visa questions through an in-app AI assistant. For travelers who want to build a clean compliance record, the exportable travel history is direct evidence of past good behavior that can strengthen future applications.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Schengen visa rejection rate in 2024?
Schengen consulates refused 14.8% of short-stay visa applications in 2024, according to the European Commission, down from 16% in 2023 and 17.9% in 2022. Out of more than 11.7 million applications, roughly 1.7 million were rejected. The rate varies sharply by member state, from a high of 38.5% in Malta to single digits in countries like Iceland. Rejected applicants forfeited an estimated €145 million in non-refundable fees in 2024.
Which country has the highest visa rejection rate?
It depends on the destination and the applicant's nationality. For US visitor (B) visas in fiscal year 2024, Laos had the highest refusal rate at 82.84%, per State Department data. Among Schengen member states, Malta refused the most applications at 38.5%. For Canada, visitor visa refusals hit 54% in 2024. Rejection rates vary enormously by passport, so the answer differs for every applicant depending on both where they apply and where they are from.
Why are Canada visitor visa refusals so high in 2024?
Canada refused 54% of visitor visa applications in 2024, up from 40% in 2023, largely because of a deliberate federal policy. In March 2024, IRCC announced a plan to cut the share of temporary residents in Canada's population from 6.5% to 5% by 2026, citing housing and cost-of-living pressures. The result was record-high refusal rates across visitor visas, study permits (52%), and overall temporary resident applications (50%). The tightening is expected to continue through 2026.
How has US student visa denial changed over time?
US student visa denials rose from a low of 15% in 2014 to a record 41% in 2024, according to Cato Institute analysis of State Department data. The previous peak was 36% in 2023. In 2024, consular officers denied 278,553 student visa applications. From 2021 to 2024, student visas were refused at nearly twice the rate of all other application categories, making the student route significantly harder to access than in the past decade.
Where do these visa rejection statistics come from?
These statistics come from primary government and authoritative research sources. Schengen figures are from the European Commission's Directorate-General for Migration and Home Affairs. US visa refusal data is from the Department of State's FY2024 refusal rate publications and the Cato Institute's analysis of State Department data. Canada figures trace to IRCC. UK data comes from the Home Office's immigration statistics. Overstay context is from the Department of Homeland Security, and regional disparity analysis is from Henley & Partners.
Related guides
- Visa Overstay Statistics 2026
- The Schengen 90/180 Rule Explained
- Digital Nomad Visa Statistics 2026
- Tourist Visa vs Digital Nomad Visa
About Staywise
Staywise is the visa compliance app for digital nomads. Built by nomads for nomads, it tracks your days across every country automatically, alerts you before overstays, and keeps passport details on your device for privacy. The in-app AI assistant answers visa questions in plain English. Available on iOS.
Important: This content is informational and does not constitute legal, tax, or immigration advice. Visa rules, tax regulations, and entry requirements change frequently and vary by individual circumstances. Always verify current requirements with official government sources or a qualified professional before making travel decisions. Staywise tracks your days and surfaces compliance information, but final responsibility for compliance rests with the traveler.